Sub-Saharan Africa has become a new global hotspot for jihadist activity. Armed groups have increasingly developed strong Salafi ideologies and forged ties with movements predominantly active in the Middle East, namely Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known by its Arabic acronym, Da’esh. The rise of terrorist activity in the region of the Sahel, Lake Chad, the Great Lakes and the Horn of Africa, and more recently in northern Mozambique, cannot be attributed solely to the influence of jihadist ideology from the Middle East.
A number of factors have contributed to the deterioration of security, among them poverty, corruption, various local grievances, separatist movements, pre-existing intercommunal violence between herders and farmers over land rights (exacerbated by the consequences of climate change), weak state presence and lack of prospects for young people.
In Mali, transnational jihadist groups emerged from the conflict triggered by the separatist Tuareg movement. More recently, in Mozambique, grievances and poverty in one of the country’s poorest provinces in the Muslim majority North, Cabo Delgado, provided fertile ground for jihadist ideology, nurtured further by foreign preachers and returning students, who had studied in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The insurrection is also a protest against socio-economic asymmetries and inequalities.
The incursion of Islamic State West African Province into Nigeria in the last couple of years is a development that has immense implications to countries in the West African sub-region. As predicted by several commentators, the terrorist group would certainly worsen the security situation in the sub-region as most countries are already very fragile due to internal political conflicts and economic weaknesses. This is why the inroad by ISWAP should be viewed with all seriousness.
Nigeria is a preferred destination of the group for obvious reasons, especially as the country is already conducive for its activities. One of these is the presence of Boko Haram, a known ally of the group. It is important to observe that in almost all the countries in the sub-region that ISWAP has infiltrated, they plan to assert control and influence. This would therefore aggravate internal conflicts as it dabbles into the internal affairs of the countries.
It is also pertinent to observe that countries that are becoming strongholds of ISWAP in the sub-region are at the moment in one form of turmoil or the other. The group’s presence in such countries could assume alarming dimensions and be worsened by the large quantum of small arms and light weapons in circulation in the region.
There is in fact nothing worse than terrorists having control over the domestic affairs of the countries. Conflicts could result from the activities of groups like ISWAP in attempts to impose their brand of Islam and oppressive rule over the populace. There could also attempt to impose their surrogates. Any of these could precipitate uprisings which could be major distractions in fragile countries.
In countries like Nigeria, the activities of ISWAP in communities controlled by Boko Haram, a close ally of the group, could accentuate the perception of widespread insecurity. Apart from general insecurity that has impeded free movement of people, the incursion of ISWAP will disrupt socio-economic activities. Economic activities have already been seriously affected in many communities in northern parts of the country as a result of the activities of Boko Haram and armed bandits. This is why some governors of states infiltrated by terrorist groups suspected to be ISWAP such as Borno and Niger recently raised the alarm on the danger posed.
Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the group has deeply infiltrated many parts of the country and is believed to be most active in the North-East and the North-Central, but they could also have found their way to the South-West and other parts of the country. This has gone unnoticed because of the cosmopolitan nature and the support it seems to enjoy in some states. The situation is made worse by the absence of the will and determination to frontally deal with the menace. Although people in the rural areas are aware of their existence, there is hardly anything they can do because of fear of deadly attacks. Discussions among security forces reveal that the problem of tackling the group is not due to a lack of intelligence but a lack of will.
It is disturbing that the group freely operates in parts of Lake Chad and parts of Askira Uba in southern Borno where it reportedly has settlements and operates markets. The group is also believed to have made extensive inroads into parts of Niger, Katsina and Kaduna states and might have made similar inroads into Zamfara and Sokoto states.
Many informed commentators believe some of the current attacks in Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno and Yobe states are committed by ISWAP or those conniving with them. These attacks are fueling the perception that the country is under siege which could do enormous damage to the image and legacy of this government. The forthcoming elections could also be a convenient period for the group to sabotage the efforts of the government.
Nigeria should explore the possibility of cooperation with countries that have the capacity to eliminate the group in the sub-region. The government should also acquire and equip the security forces with the weapons and capabilities they need to fight the group ferociously. The infiltration of the group at a time the country is contending with a combination of acts of banditry, kidnapping, lawless activities of herdsmen and separatist agitations would certainly constitute a huge distraction and serious setback to the efforts to fight terrorism.
The mistakes made in dealing with Boko Haram must be avoided at all cost. The Government has provided the security forces with the required capabilities to stop the ongoing onslaught by the group. The government and the security forces should therefore be supported in their efforts to counter the onslaught so as not to be distracted from pursuing its obligations of meeting the aspirations of the people.
• Felix Olajide writes from Lagos via [email protected]
