As Nigeria prepares for 2023 one of the major challenges to contend with is the epidemic of insecurity. Violence has been recorded across the country’s six geopolitical zones, further dividing it along ethnic, religious and political lines. Incidents have been notably higher in the North-West and South-East where banditry, terrorist activities, herder-farmer conflicts and secessionist agitations are exerting huge human and economic impacts. But in the North-East, the Islamic State in the West Africa Province and Boko Haram insurgency continue to fester, while North-Central Nigeria continues to witness conflicts over land and water. Kidnapping is a growing and increasingly “profitable” for its perpetrators, whilst incidents like the prison breakout at Kuje, on the outskirts of Abuja, have raised further concerns about the possibility of insecurity worsening.
Furthermore, the slow and largely ineffectual response of security agencies to attacks on communities has led to the creation of self-help vigilante groups and ethnic militias. Formed as a response mechanism aimed at reducing insecurity, some groups are being used and supported by states. There is a strong chance these groups will be instrumentalised to perpetrate political violence, a familiar feature of elections in Nigeria. Holding credible polls in an environment that guarantees the security of voters and Independent National Electoral Commission personnel will be a major challenge. Over a hundred bandits groups with an average of 30 members each are operating in largely ungoverned spaces across the North-West wielding military grade weapons and engaging in kidnap for ransom, rape, attacks on villages and murder.
Largely concentrated in Zamfara, Kaduna, Sokoto, Katsina, Niger and Kebbi states, these groups have collectively killed an estimated 12,000 people as of October 2021, displaced more than a million and created over a million out of school children. They were instrumental actors in the Kaduna train attack which involved the bombing of a train and abduction of over 169 passengers; an attack on the Kaduna airport; the wholesale abduction of over 300 schoolboys from the Kankara Secondary School in Katsina, the killing of security operatives in Kebbi State and the gruesome murder of at least 42 bus passengers in Sokoto.
In some local government areas in Katsina, Kaduna, Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara states, the bandits are now in de facto control.
The growth of active cells of Islamist insurgent groups in the North-West is a significant and worrisome development. The brutal modus operandi of these groups, along with their collaboration with bandits, has significant implications for the upcoming elections. In previous off-cycle elections in the North-West, they have been associated with abductions of INEC staff and materials, killing of elected officials and making the conduct of elections extremely difficult. On June 25, 2022, Ansaru in Birnin Gwari LGA of Kaduna state released an audio against any form of political campaigning in the area. The audio, which has been verified, specifically mentioned villages like Damari, Saulawa, Dogondawa as ‘no political campaign zones’.
While there has not been a concerted Federal Government effort to address the spiralling conflicts in the North-West, the governments of the affected states have individually made both kinetic and non-kinetic efforts at ridding their states of the bandits. In July 2019, the governments of Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto officially agreed to an amnesty deal with the bandits. However, these failed despite initial but short-lived success in Zamfara State. The lack of success of such peacebuilding efforts is mostly related to a lack of cohesiveness within bandit groups that makes negotiation difficult in addition to their unrealistic demands, which is further complicated by lack of a coherent state and regional approach.
In the North-East, where many of the terrorist cells in the North-West are arriving from, insecurity challenges are reducing slightly but still remain significant.
A review of data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project reveals a total of 134 attacks conducted by non-state actors, including Boko Haram and ISWAP, in the region in the first half of 2022. 57 of the attacks were targeted at civilians and resulted in more than 196 fatalities.
Furthermore, there have also been 68 recorded attacks targeted at security forces resulting in 282 deaths.
Borno State remains the most affected but there has been a notable improvement in Adamawa State. The continued insecurity will impact voting, as it has in previous election cycles, as jihadist have been known to target polling sites and voters.
- Idayat Hassan is Director at the Centre for Democracy and Development
