In the next few days, Nigeria’s flag of independence will be 62 years. It is the progression in the diamond age where individuals would start winding down from struggles to make ends meet. At age 60, a civil or public servant would have said bye, bye to office work. Only in special cases do we find some workers allowed to retire at an older age. Even then, such workers know how much effort they need to keep pace with physical and mental activities.
The private sector entrepreneur, whether on a small, medium or large scale, suffers the same fatigue getting to that age but some of them have to stretch themselves beyond the limit if their businesses cannot pay them a pension. The situation is more pathetic for those who engage in businesses involving physical exertion like mechanics, bricklayers, farmers and the like.
However, 60 years in the life of a nation is just the foundation stage. So, we cannot compare the life of a nation with that of individuals. The stream of foundation laid in the first 10 decades of a nation can determine how solid the socio-political and economy behaves in future. Of course, that foundation is not laid in one day or one decade. That is why it is a stream of development. The Nigerian political space seems to be moving in the right direction with democracy being in place in over 20 years for the first time since 1960. Most undergraduates of today would only read about military regimes in history books or newspapers. The Nigerians in their 20s and early 30s, who were very young during the last military rule under General Abdulsalami Abubakar, could crave military rule given the poverty level that has been unleashed on Nigerians in the last 15 years and practically the poverty trap in the last five years. But much older Nigerians who actually witnessed the excesses of the military, including corruption and muffling of voices of dissents, would not pray for a return to military rule.
Our social lives, which began quietly in 1960 with the concern for other people’s wellbeing and welfare have been turned upside down with the highest levels of insecurity caused partly by the hegemonic ambition of one group, one tribe or one religion to dominate others and by economic quagmire wrapped solidly in corruption and mismanagement since the advent of oil money into our economic calculations. The insecurity we used to know was limited to sporadic attacks by some bandits in North-Central particularly, armed robbery attacks in the South and, later, kidnapping on limited space also in the South.
The foundation for major insecurity was being gradually laid unnoticed when there was a growing number of children out of school, largely in the North in the last 15 years. The initial focus was on alimajiri children and the eventual creation of alimajiri schools in some parts of the North to save the situation without taking cognisance of the children who were not going to school at all. The country was being warned by relevant United Nations agencies of the rising number of out-of-school children in the North and high level of dropout of male students in the East. The out-of-school children population was put at 10 million then. There were policy initiatives from the agencies while governments at federal and state levels were more interested in politicking.
The outcome of the neglect of the education of those youths was the final fatal launch of the kidnapping of the 276 Chibok girls in 2014 by Boko Haram and the subsequent escalation of kidnapping activities by various factions of the organisation mainly in the North-East and other unrelated individually organised or some informal outfits in the South. Then entered, in the last five years, the rampaging Fulani herdsmen destruction of farms and farmers in the Middle-Belt and some parts of South-West with what seemed like connivance from the Federal Government. The resultant effects are an immediate halt to crop planting farming generally and the attendant fall in farm output to meet food and raw material requirements.
Today, the country’s managers are being informed that the figure for out-of-school children has risen from 10 to 20 million in 2021. The public primary and secondary schools have no minimum standards in teaching facilities and personnel. Majority of them are not worth being called schools. We have seen situations where most of the teachers were found to be unqualified to teach. The sacking of many such teachers in Kaduna is still fresh and that is replicated all over the country. The government moves ahead without concern.
Despite the corruption-laden “school feeding project,” which is being sold as successful, is it not surprising that the number of out-of-school children has doubled? Clearly, the government is building the personnel for future Boko Haram, unless action is taken now. But which action? A government that prefers to fund other items than education in its budget cannot be said to be serious about human capital development. The yearly budget for education between 2019 and 2021 hovered around 6.5% and the one for the current year is 5.4%. Nobody should be surprised that this government is deliberately promoting illiteracy and consequently future thugs, bandits, Boko Haram and those who will not ask for creation of decent jobs. Of course, we also do not get development. We will carry on as a Third World country.
The country’s agriculture remains at a subsistent level. But the question is: when did we truncate the move towards mechanised farming with the establishment of river basin authorities under the Third National Development Plan in the late 1970s? Why should the country still be engaged in subsistent farming in the 21st century? The answers are not far-fetched when you have leaders of the country who are still insisting on cattle roaming the land and creating pathways for them across the country!
The economic outlook was promising as we moved away from the civil war in 1970 into the oil boom of 1974, quadrupling oil prices, and started implementing the subsequent Development Plans. The financial sector started growing in terms of structure and volume of activities from the 70s up to the 90s. The industrial sector growth in the 70s was not rooted in what Justin Lin referred to as “comparative-advantage-following” in his elucidation of inclusive growth. Industrialisation then was based on import substitution industrialisation model, adopted in Latin America in the 1960s with problems of raw materials, foreign exchange and difficulty in the repatriation of profits.
The leadership since the time of Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency have been talking about inclusive growth and financial inclusion with policies going in the opposite direction. We cannot describe the industrial path within the context of any known economic model. Some interventions in the industrial sector have been done in jerk-and-fit without plans for sequencing and sustainability. It is thought that the economy can be run on borrowed funds and a beggar-thy-neighbour policy.
The foundation for industrial production is in jeopardy for both local and foreign investors. The cost of production is avoidably high. No thanks to the rising price of available power, diesel, interest rates, cost of local and imported raw materials and massive depreciation of the naira. The foundation for economic development is compromised, with a large proportion of revenue being used to service debts, lack of funds for capital projects, revenue leakages through stealing, under-reporting and outright mismanagement.
Agriculture remains not only at a subsistence level but at risk of losing its employment potential due to insecurity in the farms. The naira has never seen so much humiliation before other currencies but that is where we are with $1 exchanging for N437.24 (official) or N710 in the parallel market! Barring political considerations, which should have no place in that institution, somebody needs to be given matching orders in the central bank. What keeps the economy going for now is the service sector with rapid growth in information technology and the entertainment sub-sector. I hope there will be something to celebrate in the future. For now, let us be sober.
