With over a year left of his four-year tenure, Iyorchia Ayu is walking on a banana peel which analysts predict, may lead to an untimely fall from his exalted seat. In just a week, the former Minister of Industry has seen his continuous chairmanship of the party under threat following his suspension by his ward and a court order barring him from performing his duties as PDP national chairman. DIRISU YAKUBU writes that like others before him, Ayu may likely not return to Wadata Plaza, the edifice housing the national secretariat of the party
These are not the best of times for Iyorchia Ayu, the court suspended National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party. A few months ago, Ayu, a former President of the Senate, was a thorn in the flesh of five PDP governors who wanted him out of office at all cost. Not only did he call them children who were yet to cut their political teeth when he (Ayu) and a few leaders formed the party in 1998; he told them that the party and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, would win the February 25 election with or without their support.
In October 2021, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, working in sync with a host of his colleague governors, facilitated the exit of Uche Secondus two months before the end of his tenure. More than anyone else, Wike and his Benue State counterpart, Samuel Ortom, would seem to deserve some credit for the emergence of Ayu, whom they literally handpicked to succeed Secondus.
According to findings, Ortom was not in the frame of the plot to make Ayu national chairman of the PDP from the outset, but Ortom, the governor of his (Ayu’s) home state of Benue, reportedly convinced his colleagues that in Ayu, the PDP would have a chairman whose integrity, firmness and strength of character were infallible. That got Ayu him the approval and endorsement of the PDP Governors’ Forum with ease.
The level of his acceptance was to manifest at the Eagles Square, Abuja weeks later where he stood as the sole candidate for the highly coveted position of the party’s national chairman. In the build-up to that special convention, more prominent names had been associated with the chairmanship of the party including former Senate Presidents, David Mark and Bukola Saraki; former Governor of Kaduna State, Ahmed Makarfi, his Katsina State counterpart, Ibrahim Shema, among others.
In the past few months, Ayu had been engulfed in a fight to the finish with Governors Wike, Seyi Makinde, Ortom, Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Rivers, Oyo, Benue, Abia and Enugu states respectively over his refusal to leave office after the emergence of Atiku as the party’s presidential candidate for the February 25 presidential election.
The grouse of the governors was that Ayu, a northerner, could not continue to hold office after another northerner became the presidential candidate. This, they said, was in violation of Article 3(c) of the PDP Constitution which provides for the zoning of party and public offices in pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness between the North and South.
With Ayu showing no readiness to resign, the governors pulled out of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council and vowed never to support or campaign for the party if the National Chairman failed to step aside.
It was in this acrimonious state that the PDP went into the election and lost to Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress. He was declared the winner of the election after polling over eight million votes, while Atiku came second and Peter Obi of the Labour Party came third. Atiku lost in all the five states whose governors formed the Integrity Group that garnered support for either Tinubu or LP’s Obi.
A few weeks after filing a petition challenging the outcome of the election, the PDP is in turmoil with the suspension of Ayu by the executive committee of his Igyorov ward, Gboko Local Government Area of Benue State for alleged offences ranging from anti-party activities to failure in the payment of membership dues.
Things took a fresh turn for the embattled PDP boss when 24 hours later, a High Court in Makurdi presided over by Justice Wilfred Kpochi granted an ex parte order, barring Ayu from parading himself as the national chairman of the PDP. On Tuesday, he stepped aside but not without vowing to seek legal redress in a bid to return to his seat. Umar Damagum, who until recently was the deputy national chairman (North) of the PDP, has taken over the affairs of the party in acting capacity until the matter was resolved.
Ayu’s ordeal reflects the same pattern that brought Secondus’ reign to an end. In September 2021, the PDP ward 5 in Andoni Local Government Area of Rivers State announced the suspension of Secondus for non-payment of membership dues. A few days later, a High Court in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, presided over by Justice Okogbula Gbasam, affirmed his suspension, ruling subsequently that the famous “Total Chairman,” could no longer claim to be the chairman of the party having lost his membership because of his suspension. He thereafter granted an order of perpetual injunction stopping Secondus from performing any action while on suspension.
Secondus’ argument that Article 59 (3) of the PDP Constitution as amended provides that only the National Executive Committee of his party could sanction him, was rejected by Justice Gbasam who called for the said Article to be expunged for going against natural justice. Secondus never returned to his seat as he lost all battles initiated by his legal team to reinstate him in office.
Analysts are asking if history is about to repeat itself and whether Ayu will be lucky to return to office and even finish his tenure?
A public affairs analyst, Mr Jide Ojo, told Saturday PUNCH in an interview that it was best for Ayu to resign.
He said, “I don’t see Ayu coming back because when an issue like this goes into litigation, we know how court processes usually pan out. My advice to Dr Iyorchia Ayu is that he should just resign and proceed to enjoy his retirement in peace.”
Ojo noted that since 1998, “It is only one chairman that completed his tenure. If in a multitude of chairmen, only one had the luxury of completing his tenure; it shows that when people say they don’t want you, you don’t force yourself on them.
“What I foresee is that Samuel Ortom and the G-5 will use everything in the law to kick Ayu out of the party. This is not unconnected with the gaffe that he (allegedly) committed when before his election he said if the presidential candidate of the party comes from the North, he would resign to pave way for a chairman from the South.
“This was what the G-5 governors held on to when they asked him to do the honourable thing by resigning from office. His argument then was that there was an election to prosecute. But the elections are now over. If you remember what the party did to Adamu Muazu in 2015; the major sin of Adamu Muazu was that they said the PDP lost power under his leadership. So, on what basis is Ayu hanging on?”
Ojo noted that the former minister had also been “accused of sundry ills, including not voting in the governorship election in Benue State and not paying membership dues”.
He added, “If these allegations are true, then Ayu has not done well for the party. To allow peace reign, Ayu should resign. The party can then do a convention to elect another substantive National Chairman.
“When they abandoned Adamu Muazu, they brought in Ali Modu Sheriff because of his money but when they couldn’t tame him, they went to Port Harcourt where they came up with a caretaker committee, which produced Ahmed Makarfi as chairman. That case lingered for almost three years, and it took the adjudication of the Supreme Court for Sheriff to leave.”
Ojo had a word of caution for the embattled PDP chair, saying, “If Ayu wants to fight back, he should remember how this will impact negatively on the party. The PDP is already hemorrhaging. Emeka Ihedioha may leave the party amid claims that he is in talks with the Labour Party to contest the November 11 governorship election. The PDP needs a united house. Although the PDP gained Osun and Plateau states, they have lost Sokoto, Benue and Abia states. I think PDP was stronger in 2019 than it is now in 2023.
“He (Ayu) can’t continue to hobnob with Atiku because the former vice president has his fate in the court, but Ayu has nothing to hold on to for now. If he does not leave, they will get the National Working Committee to pass a vote of no confidence on him and that will be his end.”
The renowned columnist reminded Ayu not to forget that “this same instrumentality of politicking was used to get Adams Oshiomhole out of office as the National Chairman of the APC. They used it to get Uche Secondus out of the way. It’s time for him (Ayu) to go!”
For constitutional lawyer and political analyst, Abdul Mahmud, Ayu was being tossed aside for failing to prove his electoral value even within his state of Benue.
Asked whether Ayu stands a chance of reclaiming his seat, the legal practitioner noted, “It depends on how the forces are balanced within the party and how the politics of attrition plays out. Ayu stepping aside may be taken to mean that the party has respect for the rule of law; but I think it has a more fundamental meaning, which is that Ayu has no electoral base outside the hierarchy of the party that sacrificing him would not hurt the party. Yes, I don’t see Ayu coming back.”
For Asukwo Archibong, the National Chairman of the New Forum for Development, Ayu’s return is not certain. He stressed, “Stepping aside might signal to the different interest blocs of the party that the PDP is now ready for a chairman who is acceptable to all the contending groups. This is the time for them to come to the table and discuss the way forward.”
Also speaking, Executive Director, Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria, Emmanuel Onwubiko, told our correspondent that Ayu deserves the fate that befell him. According to him, the former Internal Affairs Minister was the sole reason the South-East was denied the opportunity to fly the PDP presidential ticket in the 2023 general election.
He said, “Ayu is a saboteur who shouldn’t have remained in office till now. For a man who was expected to mount a serious opposition to the failed APC government, Ayu could not separate friendship with Atiku from the serious business he was elected to do. He denied the South-East the opportunity to vie for the presidency on the platform of the PDP.
“There is no way out for Ayu because he has done his job which was to lead the PDP to defeat. What do I mean? If you speak with serious political analysts, some of them will tell you that Ayu was planted by the APC to ruin the opposition in the country. He is gone for good and that’s a good riddance to him. The moment that suspension came, even his chronic supporters knew that was the end for him.
“Before now, the South-East was a voting bloc for the PDP but you saw what happened in 2023. The party failed to win in the five states during the presidential election. They only managed to win Enugu in the governorship election and that was because the man, Peter Mbah, is a great fellow. PDP has now lost the South-East and Ayu is the reason for that sad development.”
Should Ayu’s bid to return to office fail, the sad tale of PDP chairmen, apart from Col Ahmadu Ali (retd.), not completing their tenure may continue to shape the sad narrative that has shaped events in the party since its formation in 1998.
