We have looked around the best betting sites to find our Game Four tips.
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Winner
The Denver Nuggets are again priced as favourites for Game Four in the latest NBA Finals odds. They have outscored the Heat by 23 points through the first three games, living up to their far superior regular season record.
Denver won nine more regular season games than Miami. The Western Conference champions also ranked sixth in net rating, compared with the Heat placing in 21st.
Miami has been much improved in the postseason, but they still deserve to be underdogs for this one. They have lost their last three games at home. Denver at 20/31 to win the game is good value.
Handicap Predictions
The Nuggets are three-point favourites for Game Four. Denver was favoured by 2.5 for Game Three, and covered that spread emphatically with a 15-point victory.
Miami has gone only 21-29-2 against the spread at home this season. While the Nuggets have had their issues on the road.
Game Three of Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets was a reminder of how good Jokic and co can be – if we needed a reminder after the NBA Conference Finals.
The Heat do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace with these Nuggets, having been held to 103 points or fewer in six of their last seven games.
Owners of the best net rating in these Playoffs by a wide margin, we are taking the Nuggets -3 in this market.
Total Points Scored Predictions
The total points scored line is set at 210.5 for Game Four, representing a decrease of four points from Game Three.
There has been an average of 206.3 points per game so far in these Finals, with under 210.5 points in Games One and Three of Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets.
A high-scoring Game Two was largely down to the Heat hitting almost 50% of their threes. Such a three-point shooting outburst is always possible with the shooters on Miami’s roster, which makes it tempting to take the over in this game.
Both offences tried to push the pace at times in Game Three. If they continue to do so on Friday, we could see a slightly higher scoring game. Prior to this series, Denver’s last eight games had gone over this number. At 210.5, we’d take the over.
Prop Bet Predictions
Jamal Murray at 5/6 odds for over 7.5 assists is our favourite prop bet for Game Four. Murray has had exactly 10 assists in each of three games so far in these Finals, with an assist rate of 38% over that period.
Michael Porter Jr, Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have struggled to score the ball for Denver in this series. Michael Malone has leaned more heavily on the two-game between Murray and Nikola Jokic as a result.
Murray can rack up the assists setting up Jokic and feeding his teammates when the Heat trap him on the pick-and-roll.
Despite a quiet Game Three, we also like the look of Gabe Vincent to have over 12.5 points at 5/6 odds with BetKing. Vincent continues to get up lots of shots, and has averaged 62.1% true shooting over his last eight appearances.
That’s one of our best predictions for Game Four.
Our Analysis of the Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game
The Nuggets were far from their best in the first two games of the series, and were under significant pressure heading into Game Three of Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets.
Wednesday’s contest was a representation of the gap between these two teams.
Even with their role players struggling, the Nuggets won in relatively comfortable fashion thanks to 30-point triple-doubles from Jokic and Murray. Christian Braun also had a big game at both ends of the floor.
Miami is still waiting on news of Tyler Herro’s availability. Their offence has stifled by the Denver defence for much of this series.
Top Scorers Predictions for Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler are the projected top scorers for Game Four with points lines of 30.5 and 26.5 respectively.
Jokic dropped 32 in Game Three after a 41-point masterpiece in the Game Two loss. Jimmy Butler scored 28 points on Wednesday, albeit needing 24 shots to do so.
Even after that performance, Butler has gone under this line in four of the last six games, and has struggled when matched up with Aaron Gordon. We’d back Butler to go under in Game Four of Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets.
Jokic could easily get into the thirties in scoring again, but the under is tempting here with Miami expected to be more aggressive in their defence against the two-time MVP.
Denver To Take Commanding 3-1 Series Lead
Denver was a massive pre-series favourite, and they have been favoured in each game so far. While the Heat never stop competing and Erik Spoelstra is bound to make more adjustments, they are at a clear talent deficit in this series.
Miami is relying on a red-hot shooting night from three or Jimmy Butler rediscovering his form from the Bucks series. Even when the Heat shot prolifically in Game Two, they only secured a narrow win.
The Nuggets are clearly the better all-round team, and that has been the case despite the struggles of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr.
Last results of the teams
Denver Nuggets Recent Results
Miami Heat 94-109 Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets 108-111 Miami Heat
Denver Nuggets 104-93 Miami Heat
Los Angeles Lakers 111-113 Denver Nuggets
Miami Heat Recent Results
Miami Heat 94-109 Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets 108-111 Miami Heat
Denver Nuggets 104-93 Miami Heat
Boston Celtics 84-103 Miami Heat
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Odds
Denver Nuggets – 20/31
Miami Heat – 27/20
