Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Winner
The Nuggets were overwhelming favourites to win the series before Game One, and they have generally been dominant through the first four games. Back-to-back wins in Miami illustrated how well-rounded Denver is.
The Western Conference champions have only lost one game at home this postseason, which happened to be Game Two of this series. They also went 34-7 at home in the regular season.
We are backing Denver to wrap this series up on Monday in front of their own fans.
Handicap Predictions
After another double-digit win in Game Four, the Denver Nuggets are 9.5-point favourites for Game Five. All three of their wins this series have been by 11 or more points.
Miami has not been able to keep up. They have scored under 100 points in their three losses, and have scored 103 or fewer in seven of their last eight.
This might seem like a big spread for a Finals game, but the chasm between these teams has become very clear. Denver -9.5 is the best bet here.
Total Points Scored Predictions
The total points line keeps coming down in these Finals. Sitting at 210.5 for Game Four, it has dropped to 207.5 for Game Five. The teams combined for 203 points on Friday, which was the same total as Game Three.
It looks like going with the under again is the value pick. There is a risk the Heat get red-hot from three again, but this series has been played at a very slow pace, which keeps the scoring numbers under control.
Six of Miami’s last seven games have gone under 207.5. We’re backing that to become seven out of eight.
Prop Bets Predictions
Backing Jamal Murray’s assists over has been a profitable option in this series. Murray has reached double-digit dimes in all four games, and his line has crept up to 8.5 for Game Five.
Even at a slightly higher number, the over is the way to go with this prop. Miami is sending extra bodies at Murray out of the pick-and-roll, making him a passer rather than a scorer. He’s up to 18 potential assists per game in the Finals.
After a 27-point showing on Friday, Aaron Gordon’s points over is also a good bet. Gordon is 99/100 for over 25.5 points at Betking. He has dominated smaller players when the Heat have switched and excels as a play finisher when the Heat help on Murry or Nikola Jokic.
Our Analysis of the Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game
The Heat’s only win this series came when they shot a shade under 50% from three. Even then, it was only a three-point victory in Denver, and the Nuggets will have felt like they should have still won the game.
Games Three and Four in Miami were a more accurate representation of these two teams. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic powered a Denver win in Game Three, then they managed to overcome Jokic’s foul trouble to win Game Five, with Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown delivering in a big way.
Denver has now won nine of its last 10 games. Miami has defied expectations this season, but this series is a step too far.
Top Scorers Predictions for Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler is once again predicted to be Miami’s top scorer with a points line of 26.5. Nikola Jokic’s points line is 29.5, which is the highest of any Nugget.
While Butler has made a habit of delivering when the stakes are highest, his recent performances point us toward the under here. He has scored 27 or fewer points in seven of his last 10 games. Two of the times he went over this line, he finished with just 28 points.
For Jokic, it is a bit more complicated. He had a quieter Game Four, scoring only 23 points, but he had 32 in Game Three and 41 in Game Two. He’s had nine 30-point games this postseason.
We would lean towards the over with Jokic, backing a statement performance as the Nuggets close out the series.
Nuggets Set To Lift Larry O’Brien Trophy For The First Time
Denver has lived up to expectations in this series. While Miami went on a historic run to the Finals, the Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the league all season and have backed that up with an excellent showing in the Playoffs.
The Heat had to get at least one game at home to stand a chance in this series, such is the impact of Denver’s homecourt advantage.
Returning to the Mile High City for Game Five, the Nuggets are rightly massive favourites. Their defence has kept the Heat to 95 or fewer points in three of four games, and the offence has been able to consistently generate good looks.
Last results of the teams
Denver Nuggets Recent Results
- Miami Heat 95-108 Denver Nuggets
- Miami Heat 94-109 Denver Nuggets
- Denver Nuggets 108-111 Miami Heat
- Denver Nuggets 104-93 Miami Heat
Miami Heat Recent Results
- Miami Heat 95-108 Denver Nuggets
- Miami Heat 94-109 Denver Nuggets
- Denver Nuggets 108-111 Miami Heat
- Denver Nuggets 104-93 Miami Heat
Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Odds
- Denver Nuggets – 2/9
- Miami Heat – 7/2
