Despite the recent rollout of 5G in Nigeria and some other Sub-Saharan African countries, 4G network is expected to continue to be dominant, according to Ericsson.
The firm in its latest mobility report noted that from now until 2029, 4G subscriptions are expected to account for 49 per cent of total mobile subscriptions in the region.
It stated that access to lower-priced smartphones and data services would also increases across the region.
It added that 5G would only account for 16 per cent of those subscriptions during the period.
The firm revealed that the total number of subscriptions in the region would grow to 1.1 billion by 2029, out of which 760 million (67 per cent) would be smartphone subscriptions.
Commenting on 4G’s role on the continent, the firm said, “In the pursuit of modernisation and enhanced connectivity, subscribers are constantly migrating toward 4G networks. This trajectory indicates that 4G will be the primary driver for new subscriptions up to the year 2028. By the end of 2029, 4G subscriptions are forecast to account for half of all mobile subscriptions.”
The firm noted that despite funding challenges and high inflation in the region, the telecom sector had remained resilient with connectivity becoming a basic need for voice and data communications, as well as for enabling services such as banking.
It expected that despite a global economic slowdown, the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa were set for a period of 4 per cent short-term growth, which would continue to drive mobile subscriptions presenting a promising opportunity for service providers.
Ericsson noted, “Furthermore, the growing adoption of smartphones, especially affordable devices, is expected to lead to an annual increase of more than 20 per cent in data consumption per smartphone throughout this period, from 6.7 GB per month to 23 GB per month.
“These projections present numerous opportunities for service providers to support the evolving telecom landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa. The driving forces behind this growth are forward-thinking regulatory measures and substantial investments from both local and international telecom companies.”
The increase in digitalisation and the benefits it offers and the pressing need for comprehensive and modernised network systems will intensify the focus on and investments into telecoms, it added.
Ericsson, said, “4G’s prevalence is poised to redefine the way communities engage with digital services- be it for education, commerce, healthcare, or social interactions.
“Service providers in Sub-Saharan Africa are evolving into technology companies, integrating mobile money services into their digital portfolios. This shift not only enhances financial inclusion in society but also significantly boosts revenue for service providers, complementing traditional voice and data services. The advantages of the high speeds, improved reliability, and efficiency that 4G offers are instrumental in shaping.”
Also, the region’s demographic advantage of a largely youthful population, alongside a marked surge in demand for enhanced connectivity solutions would play roles in expanding telecoms reach, the firm noted.
Overall, global 5G mobile subscriptions were expected to exceed 5.3 billion in 2029 after adding 163 million in the third quarter of 2023, taking total subscriptions for now to 1.4 billion. 4G subscriptions increased by 6 million in Q3 2023, totaling 5.2 billion.
Despite its continued prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa, global 4G subscriptions were expected to decline to 3.2 billion by the end of 2029, as more subscribers migrate to 5G.
Meanwhile, 5G continues to increase its share of the overall smartphone market in Q3, 2023, as Ericsson, in its report, noted that over 1,000 5G phone models had been launched, with more than 240 so far in 2023.
It added, “5G’s share of shipped smartphones continues to grow and is expected to account for 62 per cent in 2023, compared to 57 per cent in 2022.2 5G devices capable of supporting new network functionalities will enable services beyond mobile broadband.”
Recently, GSMA, the global association for telecoms, revealed that 5G subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa, would hit 226 million in 2030, driven by Nigeria and South Africa.
