Failure of opposition parties to work together towards unsettling the ruling All Progressives Congress may have aided the victory of the party’s candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, at the last presidential election, writes LEKE BAIYEWU
Independent National Electoral Commission has declared candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, winner of the presidential election held on February 25, 2023. The electoral victory is, however, not without protests, criticisms and condemnations, especially by the opposition parties and their candidates. Two are already headed to court to challenge the electoral process that led to the APC and Tinubu’s victory.
The victory will extend APC’s governance of the country to 12 years by another years. The Peoples’ Democratic Party was in charge of the country’s affairs for 16 years, from 1999 to 2015. To sack the party from the presidency, several political parties and associations had to merge to form the APC. They included the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change and All Nigeria Peoples’ Party as well as a faction of the PDP known as the ‘NewPDP’ and a faction of the All Progressives’ Grand Alliance, among others.
The merger which brought the APC into being for the 2015 election created a force formidable enough to unseat the PDP whose chieftains had vowed would govern the country for 60 years.
However, in the 2023 election, the 18 registered political parties fielded 18 presidential candidates that contested the election and shared the 25.3 million valid votes recorded. Meanwhile, only the 25.3 million voted out of the 93.5 million eligible voters registered by INEC to participate in the exercise.
Before the election, there were clamours for mergers and alliances among the opposition parties. Just like before the 2019 election, there were calls for the ‘smaller’ parties to form a coalition against the ruling APC and the opposition PDP, the country’s two biggest parties which have a large number of politicians that have been in either parties. The coalition was to be known as ‘Third Force’. However, despite that some of these parties announced their adoption of some top contenders, their candidates still participated in the contest and garnered votes.
At least four of the 18 candidates were widely acclaimed as the top contenders. They are Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabi’u Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples’ Party.
Close watchers of the events that played out on the political scene especially concerning the opposition parties and individuals believe they that approached the election not as a third force but as ‘third forces’.
Result of the presidential election show the 18 parties and their candidates split the votes. Imumolen Christopher of the Accord Party got 61,014 votes; Hamza Al-Mustapha of the AA, 14,542; Omoyele Sowore of the AAC, 14,608; Dumebi Kachikwu, ADC, 81,919; Yabagi Sani Yusuf, ADP, 43,924; Bola Tinubu, APC, 8,794,726; Peter Umeadi, APGA, 61,966; Princess Ojei Chichi, APM, 25,961; Charles Nnadi, APP, 12,839; Sunday Adenuga, BP, 16,156; Peter Obi, LP, 6,101,533; Rabiu Kwankwaso, NNPP, 1,496,687; Felix Johnson, NRM 24,869; Atiku Abubakar, PDP, 6,984,520; Kola Abiola, PRP, 72,144; Adewole Adebayo, SDP, 80,267; Abdul-Malik Ado-Ibrahim, YPP, 60,600; and Dan Nwanyanwu, ZLP, 77,665.
The APC’s Tinubu garnered 8,794,726 votes to win by simple majority. A close observation of the figures shows that Tinubu won with one of the lowest number of votes by any president since 1999, while the opposition parties garnered enough number of votes to defeat the APC if they had formed an alliance.
The other three top contenders, PDP, LP and NNPP got 6,984,520, 6,101,533 and 1,496,687, respectively. These parties, if they had formed an alliance, would have collectively polled 14,582,740 votes.
Apart from winning the simple majority votes, an alliance by at least two of the top contenders, especially Abubakar and Obi, would have made it possible to meet the required 25 per cent votes in at least two-thirds (25) of the 36 states and the FCT. For instance, while Tinubu met the requirement in 29 states, Abubakar met the condition in 21, Obi in 16 and Kwankwaso in one. This is an indication that the proposed alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso might have failed except the duo garnered more votes in more states than they did.
Recall that Kwankwaso was in the PDP where he was Governor of Kano State for two terms of eight years and Minister of Defence; he later joined APC before settling with the NNPP.
Obi was also in the PDP and left the party for the Labour Party after realising that he might not win the former’s presidential ticket. Before joining the PDP, he was Governor of Anambra State for two terms under APGA.
Abubakar was not just a founding member of the PDP but was Vice-President on the party’s platform. He later joined the APC and returned to the PDP.
This is an indication that these three candidates had their history with the PDP. However, their parties would rather seek endorsements of political individuals and groups.
In February 2022, Kwankwaso had announced the formation of a third force under the aegis of The National Movement. Others in the team with him included Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi of Kaduna State; former Minister of Youths and Sports Development, Solomon Dalung; a former associate of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), Buba Galadima; and other prominent Nigerians.
According to the TNM, the third force would unseat APC in 2023 as it was conscious of its strong duties to save Nigeria from disintegration. While promising to save democracy and rescue the nation, the political group said it was set to battle for the soul of Nigeria from the hands of APC and the PDP.
Later in March 2022, National Consultative Front, which is made up prominent Nigerian leaders of thought seeking to create an alternative political platform, had dismissed reports that the third force party initiated by the group was the same as the NNPP which was adopted by Kwakwanso and his associates in The National Movement.
The NCFront is the umbrella body of the ‘Third Force’ Movement and Political Alternatives to the All Progressives’ Congress and Peoples’ Democratic Party.
The NCFront in a statement said, “As a matter of clarification, our third force alternative mega party is not built around a single individual or leader or one group but around different political parties, major civil society and labour platforms as well as a consortium of leaders of conscience and fresh breed political change champions in Nigeria, including key leaders of the #EndSARS movement of the Nigerian youths, who are currently implementing all agreements jointly reached last week in Abuja ahead of the formal unveiling of the third force mega alliance at the end of March 2022.
Later in May 2022, the National Consultative Front said it had adopted the Labour Party as the mega party for ‘Third Force’ stakeholders and allies for the 2023 general elections.
The adoption followed about 15 months of engagements leading to a reunion between the leadership of the Labour Movement and the hierarchy of the Labour Party, jointly led by then President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Ayuba Wabba and the President of the Trade Union Congress, Quadri Olaleye.
In a statement titled ‘At Last! Labour Party Emerges as ‘Third Force’ Mega Party For 2023 Elections,’ the NCFront said, “With the adoption of the Labour Party as our ‘3rd Force’ Mega Party penultimate week, the NCFront has since commenced the fusion of its structures of over 20 million members and supporters nationwide into the Labour Party. Consequently, our teeming members all over Nigeria and in Diaspora have been directed to register immediately as members of the Labour Party at all designated registration centres, both online and physically at the Ward Levels, to be able to take part in the ongoing electoral programmes of the Party for the 2023 elections.
Kachikwu said, “Asiwaju, a dogged fighter with a mastery of the Nigerian political system took advantage of a disunited opposition some of whom were running purely on the divisive platforms of ethnicity and religion. The distortions occasioned by the rigging done by the four so-called leading parties were not significant enough to have altered the outcome of this election”.
In a scathing blame Kachikwu dropped the ball on PDP and LP, asserting, “I long warned that any vote for the Labour Party was a vote in support of an APC victory. The PDP and Labour Party candidates failed to show leadership when they refused to put aside petty differences to build a formidable opposition to take on a non-performing sitting government”.
He then mocked them for what now is “an alliance of sore losers.”
