By Theresa Moses
The North Central region accounts for 68.57% of emerging conflict alerts recorded in a tracking exercise examining the Department of State Services (DSS) and electoral security discourse ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
According to the analysis, based on a sample of 35 observations (n=35), North Central recorded the highest share of alerts, followed by multiple regions at 11.42% and the South West at 8.57%.
The findings form part of the #TrackingNaija2027Elections initiative, which monitors electoral integrity and emerging risks ahead of the 2027 polls.
The tracking data shows the following regional distribution:
– North Central: 68.57%
– Multiple Regions: 11.42%
– South West: 8.57%
– South South: 5.71%
– North West: 2.85%
– South East: 2.85%
The figures indicate that North Central accounts for more than two-thirds of the observations classified under emerging conflict alerts in the sample.
The regional concentration highlights the importance of sustained monitoring, early-warning mechanisms and preventive engagement in areas identified through the tracking exercise.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, civil society organisations and community leaders have important roles in supporting peaceful elections through timely information sharing, community engagement and appropriate responses to credible threats.
Strengthening coordination among relevant stakeholders may also help improve the identification of emerging risks and support preventive measures before, during and after the 2027 general elections.
However, the findings should be interpreted within the limits of the dataset. The percentages describe the distribution of observations in the sample; they do not, on their own, establish the actual incidence of conflict across Nigeria’s regions or demonstrate that North Central faces a proportionately higher risk of election violence.
Data Source
Nigerian newspapers (2024–2026), Nigerian broadcast media (2026) and social media (2026).
Source: CEREDEMS-AFRICA.
#TrackingNaija2027Elections is a collaborative project by CEREDEMS-AFRICA, the University of Ilorin, and the RUDN University Institute of Geopolitical Communications. The initiative tracks electoral integrity and emerging risks ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
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