By Theresa Moses
Electoral governance accounts for the largest share of stakeholder efforts aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s electoral system ahead of the 2027 elections, but it also records the highest concentration of activities seeking to weaken it, according to the latest #TrackingNaija2027Elections analysis by CEREDEMS-Africa.
The assessment examined 1,762 actor mentions from legal documents, think-tank publications, CSO and NGO reports covering 1999 to 2026.
Of 1,379 stabilisation efforts, electoral governance represented 64.17 per cent, while 46.24 per cent of 333 destabilisation activities were directed at the same sub-system. CEREDEMS-Africa consequently identified a moderately significant negative impact on electoral governance.
The pattern differs across the other components of the electoral system.
Electoral justice and peace recorded 26.12 per cent of destabilisation activities against 8.04 per cent stabilisation. Electoral security stood at 18.01 per cent destabilisation compared with 11.02 per cent stabilisation.
For information integrity, destabilisation accounted for 4.80 per cent, against 2.32 per cent stabilisation.
Inclusive participation was the only area where stabilising actors outnumbered destabilising ones, with 14.43 per cent of stabilisation efforts compared with 4.80 per cent.
The findings point to a significant difference in how stakeholders are positioned across the electoral system: efforts to strengthen governance and inclusion are substantial, while justice, security and information integrity face comparatively greater destabilising activity.
CEREDEMS-Africa is urging stakeholders to strengthen legal safeguards around electoral governance, reinforce electoral justice and security, and expand support for inclusive participation and information integrity.
The analysis is part of #TrackingNaija2027Elections, a CEREDEMS-Africa initiative in collaboration with the University of Ilorin and RUDN University Institute of Geopolitical Communications.
Data Source: Legal documents, think-tank, CSO and NGO reports, 1999–2026.
Actor mentions: Stabilisation – 1,379; Destabilisation – 333; Both – 50.
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