With new alliances and realignments springing up cross Nigeria’s political parties ahead of the 2027 elections, allegation of some backroom bargain and deals between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Africa Democratic Congress (ADC) in Kwara State, has added a new dimension to the mix and it’s fast unsettling the state’s political calculus.
Sources privy to some of the developments in the state have alleged that something intriguing, although not totally unusual, is unfolding in Kwara State’s political landscape.
According to these sources, beneath the familiar rivalry between the ruling APC and the opposition ADC, is a more complicated contest involving personalities, political loyalties and competing interests that could extend well beyond the state’s boundaries.
At the centre of the emerging conversation, Sources disclosed, are Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of the state and the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, both of whose political calculations have become subjects of speculation in the run-up to the 2027 elections.
Of particular interest, it is gathered, is an allegation of an understanding between the two political figures, ostensibly designed to accommodate their separate interests in the governorship and presidential contests, both for and against their respective parties.
Under the alleged arrangement, AbdulRazaq is said to have sought Abdullahi’s discreet assistance in strengthening the prospects of the APC governorship candidate in the state, Hon. Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, at the expense of the ADC candidate, Hon. Zakari Mohammed.
In exchange, the governor, sources claimed, is bound by the pact to facilitate support for the ADC presidential candidate and former Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
Insiders, who allege that the deal had long been struck and sealed, did not express surprise at the choices embraced by the Kwara governor and why he thought sacrificing President Tinubu’s chances for his governorship candidate is a smarter move.
Giving some background to the deal, sources recall the allegation of N100 million allegedly given to Mohammed sometime back as some form of support for his aspiration, a situation that then necessitated Mohammed publicly denying any such thing.
This is because, aside from the fact that both Danladi-Salihu and Mohammed are from the same local government, it is a well-known fact that Mohammed, the ADC candidate, is better politician and well-grounded in local politics than his APC counterpart, Danladi-Salihu.
In order to create a smoother path for his candidate, having established that Mohammed will be a problem, Abdulrasaq decided to have some in-road into the ADC enclave by bringing Mohammed closer, having earlier failed to stop him from getting the ADC ticket.
Unfortunately, Abdulrasaq’s decision to fish for a candidate from the northern part of the state, is said to be against the understanding and advice of President Bola Tinubu, who understands the politics of the state and the place of Kwara Central in the overall extrapolations.
This disobedience, sadly, is said to have further compounded his offence with the president, who he promised to concede his running mate to in 2019 but disappointed him without explanations.
Besides, his emergence as the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), sources say, was situational, because he was the only available after the president’s review of the options failed to settle for Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State.
Sule, who was alleged to be the natural choice of his colleagues, could not pass the test of loyalty with the president, after he allegedly supported former Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo at the APC primaries in 2023 and Atiku at the general election.
But since he and AbdulRasaq were the only returning governors from the zone, the president “blindly” settled for him because he would never pick “a betrayer” as NGF chairman, but still did not forget the times that AbdulRasaq, too, had let him down.
In fact, this rather precarious situation is believed gave the Imo State Governor, Senator Hope Uzodinma, the leverage, he seems to enjoy with the president and the party at large, as he is said to enjoy the president’s confidence more as the chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum.
However, when AbdulRasaq broached the issue of successor with the president and he advised him to consider the central to be able to compete with the PDP, he allegedly deceived the president by first publicly endorsing Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki on May 19, 2026, only to turn around, alleging Seriki had some credibility issue that could affect his candidacy.
It was after he returned to Danladi-Salihu as his ultimate governorship pick that President Tinubu allegedly washed his hands off the Kwara APC ‘rollercoaster’ as being driven by the governor.
It is against this backdrop that AbdulRasaq considered a deal and backroom bargain with the ADC his best bet, since securing a choice successor could guarantee a post-office security.
In further breaking down the situation, the governor, sources claim, said since for many years Kwara North has featured prominently in discussions about political inclusion, zoning and the distribution of power among the state’s three senatorial districts, 2027 may be their time, concluding all is fair in politics.
By the governor’s calculation, any weakening of Mohammed’s grassroots organisation can have implications for ADC’s governorship campaign, just as any corresponding strengthening of Danladi-Salihu’s local political network can alter the dynamics of the contest.
Such an outcome, however, is not automatic, especially since voters are not transferable assets, and Baruten’s electoral choices will depend on more than the calculations of political elites.
This is why the alleged arrangement involving AbdulRazaq and Abdullahi, will be politically consequential, and can suggest an attempt to influence the state contest through an understanding that extends into national presidential politics.
By implications, again, if Abdulahi plays ball with the governor and sells out the ADC candidate, it means the governor too will give up the presidential election in Kwara, which is the first ballot, more so that he seems to be out of favour with the presidency and his party at the national level.
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