By Theresa Moses
Half of the monitored cases involving hate speech ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections show no immediately identifiable risk, but more than a third already indicate emerging risks that could escalate if left unaddressed.
The latest #TrackingNaija2027Elections data by CEREDEMS-Africa, in collaboration with the RUDN University Institute of Geopolitical Communications, analysed 32 observations from Nigerian newspapers between 2024 and 2026, alongside social media and broadcast media monitored in 2026.
The tracking found that 50 per cent, representing 16 cases, showed no identifiable risk associated with failure to prevent hate speech.
However, 37.50 per cent, or 12 cases, were classified as emerging risk, while 9.37 per cent, representing three cases, showed significant risk. One case, or 3.12 per cent, was classified as critical risk.
The figures suggest that although half of the monitored cases have not produced an identifiable immediate risk, a substantial proportion already presents warning signs requiring attention as political activity intensifies ahead of 2027.
CEREDEMS-Africa said failure to address harmful speech could have implications for voter participation, institutional trust and social cohesion.
The organisation urged stakeholders to strengthen preventive measures, including fact-checking, counter-narratives, media literacy and public condemnation of harmful political messaging.
It also called on INEC, political parties, traditional and religious leaders, media organisations and other influential voices to play active roles in discouraging the creation and spread of hate speech.
The tracking provides an early-warning perspective rather than a prediction of future electoral violence. The risk classifications reflect the patterns identified in the monitored observations.
With 46.87 per cent of cases already classified as emerging, significant or critical risk, continued monitoring and timely intervention could be important as Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 elections.
Data Source: Nigerian Newspapers, 2024–2026; Social Media, 2026; Nigerian Broadcast Media, 2026.
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